Position of FE Line and IS Curve Analysis

Position of FE Line and IS Curve Analysis The employees choose to work when the organizations offer high wages to them and on the other hand organizations have a preference to hire employees while the wage rate is low, the labor market equilibrium is to balance out the contradictory needs of employees and organizations and find out the wage rate and the employment examined in the labor market. The labor market equilibrium find out an amount of labor, and that amount of labor through the production function determines full employment level of output. As the level of output does not rely on the rate of interest the full employment line would be plotted as a vertical line in the graph. The first example of change in economy that would shift the FE line to right is the increase in labor supply, when the labor population increases the equilibrium employment also increases which in turn increases the full employment output and shifts the FE line to right. The second example of the change in economy is the increase in capital stock when the capital stock increases the additional output can be produced with the same number of labor and that would shift the FE line to right. Q2) What relationship does the IS curve capture? Derive the IS curve graphically and show why it slopes as it does. Give Two examples of changes in the economy that would cause the IS curve to shift down and to the left. The IS curve illustrates the correlation between the real interest rate and income for which investment is equals to savings. The graphical representation is based on the dependent variable which shows the income level and the independent variable which is rate of interest. The IS curve is drawn as down-ward sloping with the rate of interest (r) on vertical axes and the level of income (Y) on horizontal axis. Is curve represents the equilibrium point where total investment equals to total savings. Derivation of IS curve The saving curvature incline upward as the high rate of interest increases savings whereas an increase in income shifts the saving curvature to the right, because people save more when their income is more and the investment curvature slopes downward as the high rate of interest decreases the preferred capital stock which in turn decreases investment. At the higher level of income the saving curvature shifts to the right comparatively when level of income is low. The interest rate is lower at the increased level of income due to which the IS curvature slopes downward. The first example of the change in economy that would cause the IS curve to shift down and to left is due to taxes when consumer without considering future tax cut decreases the consumption it increases the savings and decreases the rate of interest that clears the good market. The second example of the change in economy is when due to the effective tax rate on capital investment decreases which also decreases the rate of interest and shifts the IS curve down and to the left. Q3) What relationship does the LM curve capture? Derive the LM curve graphically and show why it slopes as it does. Give two examples of changes in the economy that would causes the LM curve to shift down and to the right. The LM curve illustrates the relationship between rate of interest and income for which the asset market is in equilibrium. Like the graphical representation of IS the LM s graph also has two variables; the independent variable is income and the dependent variable is rate of interest. The LM curvature is upward sloping and characterizes the amount of money demanded which is equal to the amount of money supplied. Derivation of LM curve The LM curvature can be derive by projecting demand of money for different levels of income and the resulting equilibrium. If we talk about equilibrium it says that when income rises the demand for money increases and when the demand for money increase it makes people to sell their fixed assets so the cost of those assets decreases and the rate of interest increases. As the rate of interest increases the money demand decreases till the equilibrium is achieved and due to this the LM curvature slopes upward from left to right. The first example of the change in economy that would cause the LM curve to shift down and to the right is due to increase in nominal money supply, when money supply increases, it decrease the rate of interest and achieve the point of equilibrium where money supplied equals money demanded. The other example of the change in economy is when there is increase in expected inflation the money demand increases as well as the rate of interest increases and achieve the equilibrium that causes the LM curve to shift down and to the right. Q5) Define general equilibrium and show the general equilibrium point in the IS-LM diagram. If the economy isn t in general equilibrium, what determines output and the real interest rate? What economic forces act to bring the economy back to general equilibrium? The general equilibrium is when FE line, IS curvature and the LM curvature intersects. It is indicated that outside variations are quite sensitive to the perseverance of interest rate and the output. The economic forces such as price adjustments in IS-LM model in terms of increase in government purchases and real money supply will work to bring back the economy back to general equilibrium. Q7) What two variables are related by the aggregate demand (AD) curve? Why does the AD curve slope downward? Give two examples of changes in the economy that shift the AD curve up and to the right and explain why the shifts occur. The two variables that are related to aggregate demand are price and income. The AD curve slopes downward because the AD curve considers the IS-LM illustration in which the LM curvature is drawn for fixed level of prices if price changes then LM curvature also shifts. At different levels of prices the IS-LM junctions determines the income level with various prices. The income and price on the graph gives the aggregate demand. For example any variable like the rate of interest or income except price that moves IS or LM from their original position it would also shift aggregate demand, the way of movement is determined by identifying the change in IS-LM model like if there is an increase in income level it shows the movement in IS-LM graph. Therefore IS and LM meet at higher income level, then the aggregate demand curvature moves to the right.

Causes and Effects of Growing Terrorism

Causes and Effects of Growing Terrorism Chapter 1 Introduction The Threat from Terrorism There are very few humans in the world today who have not had their lives altered or affected in some way through terrorist acts or the threat from terrorism. The highly publicized terrorist attacks in the United States, London, Madrid, and Mumbai were seen worldwide and have lead to sweeping changes in the security postures of many western and developed nations, as well as to a multi-nation war in Afghanistan. For those that have not felt the direct effects by losing someone close to them, there are many life altering after-shocks have had global reach and thus have effected nearly everyone. Every person who uses public transportation, rides in a plane/train, or crosses an international border will feel the effects of international terrorism through vastly increased security measures. Terrorism has changed foreign policy for many nations and has lead to wars.[1] In all, terrorism is rewriting the geopolitical map as we see it now and in the decades to come, will continue to change t he world as we know it. Radical Militant Islamic Groups There are many religions and political factions that have terrorist cells. In fact, in this day and age, one would be hard pressed to find a country or religion that does not have some form of fundamental or radicalized terrorist group in its midst. Groups espousing terror find roots in Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Buddhism and Hinduism.[2] This being said, in recent times, the most dangerous threat to western and developed nations comes from the Radical Militant Islamic Groups. These Islamic Militants have not only local and national reach, but can project their influence regionally and even globally (as seen with Al Qaeda and Hezbollah), and thus will be the focus of this dissertation. Shifting Sands: Since as far back as history dates, there has been war between peoples. Sometimes these peoples were evenly matched, and the battles pitted large armies against one another. Yet at other times, the odds were heavily in favor of one side, and the lesser of these groups had to resort to non-traditional warfare to inflict losses on their enemy. Sometimes these attacks were focused on the enemys military, and sometimes these attacks were focused on the citizenry of the enemy nation. The enemies could be nation vs nation or sometimes they were nation vs a non-state actor group. The pendulum has swung back and forth throughout history as to what is the root of terrorist groups. With the emergence of Al Qaeda we have seen that in the present day the non-state actor terrorist groups have taken center stage, though this may be about to change. Attempt to predict the future This paper engages the probability of predicting the future of global terrorism. This is achieved by analyzing the history of the origins and conceptual changes of terrorism over years past and current trends of terrorism as seen through the data available from the terrorism scholars of today. Though terrorism is not a completely Islamic phenomena, this paper will focus on terrorism from Radical Militant Islamic Groups, as this is the most predominant form of terrorism seen in the present day. It will attempt to lay out the evolution of terrorism to give some basis for a review of the current most important trends in terrorism. It will discuss the origins of ethno-nationalist (or state sponsored) terrorism and further discuss how this has morphed into the new transnational (or non-state actor) terrorism of today. Finally the paper will set the stage for the prediction of a future shift back to state sponsored terrorism and outline the reasons why this is going to occur. Chapter II Evolution of Terrorism – Historical Roots Mr. Speaker, I agree with those who say that the Global War  on Terrorism is actually a Global War of Ideas and that  terrorism is one of the tactics used in that War. Mac Thornberry (US Congressman) P re-Modern World: 1st Century BC to the 13th Century The history of [6] 1793: The Origins of Modern Terrorism In 1793, following the French revolution, Maximilien Robespierre instigated a reign of terror on those who opposed the French revolution.[7] This reign of terror is conventionally known as the birthplace of the word Terrorism.[9] Robespierres sentiment is the keystone in the beliefs of many modern terrorists, who consider violence the best and most efficient way to get to their desired outcome. As decades passed, the categorization of terrorism as a state action has blurred, as the idea of terrorism as an attack against an existing political order became more prominent. 1950s: The Rise of Non-State Terrorism Terrorism in the 1950s got its start from the guerilla warfare tactics popular with many insurgent groups of the time. This rise of guerrilla tactics by non-state actors in the last half of the twentieth century was due to several factors. These included the blossoming of ethnic nationalism (e.g. Irish, Basque, Zionist), anti-colonial sentiments in the vast British, French and Dutch empires, and new ideologies such as communism. In near recent times, terrorist groups with nationalist agendas have sprung up in every part of the world. For example, the Irish Republican Army grew from the desire of Irish Catholics to form an independent republic, and break their ties with Great Britain.[10] Similarly, the Kurds, a distinct ethnic and linguistic group in Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq, have sought national autonomy since the beginning of the 20th Century.[13] 1970s: The International Turn of Terrorism International terrorism came to the forefront as a prominent issue in the late 1960s, when hijacking of large airliners became a favored tactic. In 1968, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine became the first group to hijack an aircraft.[18] 1990s: 21 st Century: The Rise of Religious Terrorism Though an argument can be made that the rise of religiously motivated terrorism got its modern day start in Iran and Afghanistan to counter the political issues of the Shah and the Soviet Union, it came to the forefront with many highly visible violent acts committed during the 1990s. Groups that justify their violence on Islamic grounds Al Qaeda, Hamas, and Hezbollah come to mind first. But Christianity, Judaism, Hinduism and other religions have given rise to their own forms of militant extremism.[19] In recent years RMIGs have taken center stage for their astoundingly violent acts perpetrated against the citizenry of non-Muslim cultures. Chapter III Trends in Terrorism When you give religiously inspired zealots weapons of mass destruction and you promise them that if they kill innocent people they will go to heaven, imagine what the consequences are. Major Changes are Ahead There are major changes coming to terrorism in the years ahead. These changes can be seen from the trends of today, and will deeply change the threat to marked nations by terrorists and the terms on which we must fight the war against RMIGs. The top trends that will influence the changes in Terrorism Globally are summarized below. Fertility rates will lead Western Countries to come under Islamic rule In contrast to the developing world, many industrialized countries are currently, or will soon, see fertility rates below the replacement level and hence significant declines in populations, excluding the effects of immigration[22] Militant Islam continues to grow in both membership and power It has been clear for years that many Islamic nations face severe problems with religious extremists who are dedicated to advancing their political, social, and ideological views by any means necessary.[23] Nearly all of the Muslim lands are overcrowded and short of resources. Many are poor, save for the oil-rich states of the Middle East.[27] The Terrorist Ranks Are Growing The post 9/11 invasion of Afghanistan that lead to the unseating of the Taliban regime deprived Al Qaeda of a safe haven, striking a major blow against the global terrorist movement, yet by not following up effectively on that initial success, a great deal of benefit that could have been solidified was squandered. Additionally, with the invasion of Iraq, Al Qaeda and its sympathizers now have new grounds from which they can unite their members and, more importantly, recruit new ones.[32] At the heart of the Middle East fundamentalist movement are the wahabists of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has recently been forced to enact a program designed to keep Muslim men from going to Iraq to wage war against the coalition forces in a global jihad.[35] In this way, the foundation for terrorist cells are built which are independent of Al Qaeda but resolutely committed to the same objectives. Examples of this have been seen in the Madrid railway bombings which were carried out by Al Qaeda inspired Moroccan terrorist cell who were motivated by the Iraq invasion.[39] It is clear that RMIGs have significant sympathy among Europes Muslim population. The French riots of October and November 2005 affected at least twenty cities in that country, resulting in 2,888 arrests, leading to a further spill over of violence in Greece, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, and Switzerland.[40] It has been proven that Saudi Arabia continues to fund and maintain connections with a broad group of religious schools, stretching from Pakistan to New York, and from the Philippines to India.[44] Individuals from Europe and the Middle East are embracing the extremist teachings, traveling to Afghanistan, Kashmir and Iraq to fight, and returning to their own countries, with the rights of western citizens to carry the fight against the very nations they were born to. RMIGs Will Gain Access to Weapons of Mass Destruction It must be assumed that tomorrows terrorists will make every effort to ensure that they have more than unconventional amounts of conventional explosives with which to make their violent point.[46] Pakistan represents by far the greatest opportunity for would-be nuclear terrorists to become nuclear terrorists. If Muslim extremists cannot gain access to stolen weapons from the former Soviet Republics, Islamabad may be their provider. Thankfully, this seems not to be a guarantee that terrorists will use nuclear weapons against the potential western targets. RMIGs will most likely receive large, hard to conceal, low-yield devices that will be difficult to smuggle to their target. Though one can be certain that terrorist organizations will try anyway, other weapons of mass destruction (WMD) look to be a much more likely option. Clouds of toxic gas or incompletely weaponized bacteria could find their way into New York City, London or Paris. Even more likely is the chemical weapon threat. As the Japanese cult Aum Shinrikyo, demonstrated in a Tokyo subway in 1995, chemical weapons are available to essentially anyone who wants them badly enough to put in a modest effort to make or buy them.[47] The Home Grown threat from Muslim extremists is on the rise A 1994 terrorism study by the US Department of Defense predicted that by 2020 a majority of the worlds most important Muslim lands could be controlled by extremist religious governments.[52] Beyond that, for the first time, an Islamic country, Pakistan, has nuclear weapons. As previously mentioned, Islamic extremists view this technology as an Islamic bomb that could be used to promote their apocalyptic ideology, making nuclear terrorism a realistic threat. This threat will grow as Iraq, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, and other countries establish fundamentalist regimes that are willing to back the cause of jihad against the West. Saudi Arabia is well on the path to be taken over by a fundamentalist regime, and to attempt to postpone this, the Saud family will continue to provide more support to extremists and endeavor to direct the RMIGs attention to the West.[53] The overthrow of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the war in Iraq have strengthened the global jihadist movement, given them a training ground and built up the contacts for future terrorist acts. The gap between the Haves and the Have Nots will continue to increase The growing gap in wealth between the rich and poor countries looks as if it will further destabilize the world order, continuing to encourage prospective RMIGs in the less developed nations to foment violence against the rich in their own countries, or when available against western targets. This rising gap in wealth within many prosperous nations has the possibility to set off discontent among the less well-off, possibly helping to inspire random violence and acts of domestic terrorism in the West. The growing gap in wealth and income between the rich and the poor also may inspire conversion to Islam in the West, principally among the underprivileged. As seen in England and Australia, this can be a source of violent extremism among both immigrant and native populations.[54] Population growth is highest in those countries least able to support the growth The greatest fertility rates are found in those countries least able to support their existing populations: the largest population increases projected between 2000 and 2050 include the Palestinian Territory (217 percent), Niger (205 percent), Yemen (168 percent), Angola (162 percent), the Democratic Republic of Congo (161 percent), and Uganda (133 percent).[55] The Muslim world is reproducing at an extremely high rate, with fertility rates of 7.5 in Afghanistan, 6.0 in Yemen, and 4.9 in Iraq.[57] Even these estimates appear to be on the low side. According to CSIS, most official projections underestimate both the fertility rates and age of mortality, as well as making the assumption that life expectancy will grow more slowly in the future, which seems unlikely as world healthcare only continues to get better. Growing Western prosperity relative to other countries with rapidly growing populations and overburdened economies will continue to make the developed nations a target for terrorism. Shortages of food could help to motivate extremism unless the industrialized nations make a determined, visible effort to provide for the worlds poor. (Food production in the next 40 years will need to be significantly higher then ever before in the worlds history to keep the exploding world population from starvation).[58] Urbanization, will continue to increase rapidly According to the Population Reference Bureaus 2006 World Population Data Sheet, Forty-eight percent of the worlds population currently lives in cities. By 2030 that figure is expected to grow to 60 percent, as approximately 2.1 billion more people move to the worlds urban centers.[59] In industrialized nations, on average, more than three-fourths of the population lives in urban areas (urban areas are defined differently for each country).[62] Right now, there are billions of people who live in urban areas who lack adequate clean water, shelter, toilets and hygiene areas, and/or electricity.[63] The problems this raises with reference to crime, violence, and religious extremism is readily apparent. Concentrating the poor, oppressed and powerless in large cloistered urban centers produces conditions ideal for the spread of crime and the type of religious extremism that lends itself to violent ideologies. Chapter IV Old Terrorism Any government that supports, protects or harbours terrorists is complicit in the murder of the innocent and equally guilty of terrorist crimes. George W. Bush Old Terrorism – Ethno -nationalist or Ideological, and state sponsored What are the differences between the legitimate tactics used by authorities in the quelling or defence of terrorism, and terrorism itself? Nations at times will use violence to control or manipulate parts of their populace, or use intimidation to get what they desire.[67] A government that is an adversary of Country B may apply terror tactics in an effort to make up for real or perceived inadequacies in conventional warfare capabilities. Repression through terror of the indigenous population of their own country may occur to stop the dissent or violent uprising inside the country that Country B might exploit. Special Operations forces, paramilitary forces and state intelligence assets could conduct terrorist operations against Country B interests both inter-regionally and as far outside the countries borders as the abilities of their external security apparatus will allow to destabilize Country B and bring desired visibility to the sponsoring governments issues. Finally, attacks on Country B on their home soil may be conducted by RMIGs of the state or by other domestic proxies.[68] This is being seen today in Iraq with the Iranian involvement to destabilize Iraq and kill coalition servicemen, as well as Pakistans efforts to destabilize the Jammu and K ashmir region of India. Forms of State Terror Governmental or State terror State involvement in terror State sponsorship of terrorism Turning a blind eye to the harboring/funding of terror groups in their borders[69] Governmental or State terror Governmental or State terror is normally seen when a regime uses threats or outright terror to its own populace to exert power over or suppress them.[73] These weapons were not used against the majority Muslim population in the southern 2/3 of Iraq, where he accomplished his goals using conventional state terror methods. State involvement in terror State involvement in terror includes the activities where government personnel perform operations using terror tactics that are directed against other nations interests, individuals or private groups that have opposing or controversial opinions/actions viewed as counter to that of the state. In essence, it is governmentally authorized terrorism, though these sanctions hardly ever come to public light. Some past examples of this governmentally authorized terrorism are the assassination include the Soviet and Iranian assassination operations aimed at state dissidents who moved abroad for fear of their lives. Additionally, the targeting and destroying (through a covert bombing campaign carried out by Libyan and North Korean intelligence officers) of international airliners was another past example of this form of terrorism.[75] A further form of state involvement in terror is pro-state terror. This is a terror campaign carried out by small groups or individual people who have no authorized status in the system. These type of attacks generally are lacking in official support as well. Pro-state terror may have the end result of a desired outcome which the government wants. In these cases, with official use of violent crime tacitly supported by the authorities, even though the groups or individuals have gone outside the rule of punishment of the terrorists is rare. State sponsorship of terrorism State sponsorship of terrorism, also referred to as state supported terrorism, represents a situation when non-state terrorist organizations are trained, equipped and operationalized by an authorized national governmental agency. A very productive aspects of this support is the providing of safe havens for terrorists organizations.[78] Examples of state sponsorship of terrorism are the overt support by the government of Syria to Hamas as well as Lebanons overt support and backing of Hezbollah. Syrian funding and the providing of safe havens facilitate many training areas in the Beka Valley territory.[81] Chapter V New Terrorism Terrorism is carried out purposefully, in a cold-blooded, calculated fashion. The declared goals of the terrorist may change from place to place. He supposedly fig problems his only solution is the demolition of the whole structure of society. No partial solution, not even the total redressing of the grievance he complains of, will satisfy him until our social system is destroyed or delivered into his hands. BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, International Terrorism New Terrorism – Transnational or Global Jihadism The first efforts to describe a new form of terrorism began to occur in the 1990s, when scholars of terrorism attempted to make sense of a phenomenon they were seeing that did not fit into the previous model of terrorism in the 1970s and 1980s. Attacks such as that of the religious cult Aum Shinrikyo did not make sense without a reconsideration of the old model. In reality, the term new terrorism truly came into its own only after the September 11, 2001 attacks.[82] In a short comparative of the new and old terrorism, it has been stated that: * The new terrorism is justified on religious and apocalyptic grounds, while the old terrorism was rooted in political ideology.[83] * The new terrorism aims at destruction as an end in itself, while the old terrorism used violent destruction as a means to a political end;[84] * The new terrorism is organizationally distinct from the old terrorism. It is hierarchical (has many equally authoritative points of leadership) and horizontal, rather than hierarchical and vertical; it is decentralized rather than centralized;[85] * The new terrorism aims at as much destruction as possible, whether through devastating forms of weaponry or techniques such as suicide terrorism, whereas the old terrorism sought to create a dramatic spectacle with as little damage as possible;[86] More recently, those who write about new terrorism have focused on a perceived new threat of mass casualties caused by chemical, biological or other agents.[89] On the counter point, when one looks holistically and historically at Terrorism, there seems to be no old or new terrorism, just a Darwinistic evolution of violence for political purposes. Even Martha Crenshaw, the noted terrorism expert who is a staunch advocate against the use of the term New Terrorism states the following in comparing and contrasting the goals, methods, and organization of New and Old Terrorism: Goals The new terrorism model assumes uniformly that religion, primarily of those groups with millennial and apocalyptic ideologies, is the main precipitating factor. The new terrorists are said to have ambiguous goals on the systemic level and to value destruction for its own sake (i.e., the means are the ends). By contrast, the old terrorism is seen as comprehensible, limited, more specific, and often tied to territory – thus making the grievance more susceptible to negotiation. How well does the new terrorism model fit the historical record? Crenshaw observes that the religion behind various groups (e.g., Aum Shinrikyo versus Al Qaeda) differs, as do their goals (i.e., local or global). She also notes that some of the old terrorist groups (e.g., the 19th century anarchists and the Red Army Faction) had broad, transnational goals.[90] Means According to the new terrorism model, groups seek to kill as many people as possible and are particularly drawn to weapons of mass destruction, whereas the old terrorism approach assumed that the groups were limited in their means as well as goals. Crenshaw acknowledged that the new terrorism model best fits with respect to this criterion. [91] Organization and structure The new terrorists are decentralized and networked, are inspiration-driven, and often include amateurs. By contrast, the old terrorists are centralized, top-down, professional organizations that are often state sponsored. The new terrorism distinction only partly meets this criterion as many of the old terrorist groups, such as the Red Army faction, were not so monolithic. The bottom line seems to lend itself to seeing terrorism as not new in kind, but in degree and structure.[92] The new terror groups of today (Al Qaeda being the most well known) center mainly around religion as a core for recruitment and promulgation of ideology. Islam is the religion of choice and has found a massive following in Middle Eastern Arab Muslims, especially the Wahabists of Saudi Arabia, but the splinter groups, or those groups loosely associated, have worldwide reach.[93] These organizations differ significantly from more traditional terrorist organizations of past decades. The groups of today do not depend on the sponsorship of a political state, and, unlike the PLO or the IRA, they are not defined by a particular conflict. Instead, these groups operate analogous to the businesses McDonalds or Starbucks. Al Qaeda is the franchise owner, providing financial and logistical support, as well as name recognition, to local, regional and transnational terrorist groups operating in such diverse places as the Philippines, Algeria, Eritrea, Afghanistan, Chechnya, Tajikistan, Somalia, Ye men, and Kashmir. Local groups may carry out acts in the name of al-Qaeda in order to bolster their own reputation—even if they are not receiving support from the organization. This is possible because the ideology that al Qaeda has developed and promulgated focuses their concepts to stress a few main tenants to ensure the survival and spread of the movement. Ensuring the perpetuity of the fight.[94] Obeying the individual obligation to fight Islams enemies regardless of the apparent outcome of battle[95] Institutionalizing a culture of martyrdom[96] Pinpointing Islams enemies through the refining process of jihad, and thus maintaining its identity[97] Establishing pride, brotherhood, and unity in the face of threats to the ummah[98] Creating a parity of suffering with Islams enemies—especially the Jews and Crusaders[99] Victory is seen in the maladies afflicting Gods enemies, especially economic recession and natural disasters[100] Observing miracles and dreams in jihad, which foretell of divine guidance and ultimate victory for the mujahedeen[101] As long as groups follow these main tenants, and focus their violence against the common enemy, then they are supporting the common cause. Due to this, Scott Atran argues that it is not religion, but group dynamics based off of social needs that fuels the Global Jihadist movement but small-group dynamics involving friends and family that form the diaspora cell of brotherhood and camaraderie on which the rising tide of martyrdom actions is based.[102] As mentioned by Crenshaw above, one of the main improvements of New terrorism is that of decentralized execution of actions that may or may not have been planned by some higher authority. As stated in the United States Air Force Defense Doctrine publication 1, Decentralized execution is, the delegation of execution authority to responsible and capable lower-level commanders to achieve effective span of control and to foster disciplined initiative, situational responsiveness, and tactical flexibility.[103] Chapter VI New Old Terrorism In todays wars, there are no morals. We believe the worst thieves in the world today and the worst terrorists are the Americans. We do not have to differentiate between military or civilian. As far as we are concerned, they are all targets. Osama Bin Laden Time magazine profile (16 September 2001) The Pendulum Swings Back For better or worse (and this author believes it is worsemuch worse) the pendulum is swinging back in the direction of state sponsored terrorism. For nations like Pakistan and Iran, the pendulum never moved, as these countries have been manning, training, equipping, and operationalizing terrorist groups for decades.[108] Iran has consistently been described by the United States as the worlds foremost state sponsor of terrorism. It actively supports terrorist groups, most prominently the Lebanese group Hezbollah.[115]. Iran and Hezbollah Hezbollah, a radical Shiite militia based in Lebanon, is a direct product of funding and training by Irans IRGC (QF). It was formally established in 1982 following the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, aimed at uprooting the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization) bases there.[119] RMIG takeover of Islamic Nations For other nations that have not been wholly engaged in state sponsored terrorism, there are growing dangers as well. There are two types of new and developing state sponsored terrorism which may very soon roll a number of these nations into the terrorist state fold. The first one, unfortunately, we are all familiar with, as the most accurate example being the Al Qaeda infiltration of Afghanistan. After the Soviet Union finally withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989 the communist Afghani government hung on for three more years, and then was finally overrun by RMIGs.[121] These services and practical, day-to-day contributions to the lives of ordinary citizens will provide a legitimacy and underpinning for future political activities by terrorist organizations. This RMIG sponsored ground root social support, combined with the reality that in almost every country in the Muslim world, western focused terrorism already has the sympathy of a majority of the population and the strong allegiance o f many, will in the near future give rise to terrorist based governments in many middle-eastern countries. The second development in state sponsored terrorism is focused at the western nations, with Europe directly in the crosshairs and North America soon to follow. The most dangerous and most likely future development in the spread of terrorism is that caused by population growth and immigration of Muslims into western lands. The bottom line is that there is a near irreversible trend in the expansion of Islam into Europe and Canada.[125] In essence, Europe in the next 50 years will be of a very different demographic makeup as it is now. Of all population growth in the EU in the last 20 years, 90% has been from immigrants, much of which were Islamic.[126] In France, though the statistics vary, the Islamic fertility rate is considered much higher than the 1.8 of native Frenchmen, as Islamic immigrants make up only 7.5% of the population yet account for 20% of the fertility rate.[128] It is not just France. As of 2001, the Muslim population in Great Britain rose from 82,000 in 1991 to 1,600,000 (Estimated at 2,500,000 today).[131] Compared to the decline in population of a majority of the industrialized nations, The United States (thanks to Latino immigration) will maintain the current fertility rate of 2.11 children per couple, thus providing the body pool to maintain strength in the global economy, as the European Union falls to third place behind the United States and China.[132] Whether it be by overthrow in an unstable middle-eastern country, or out-breeding the populations of western nations, it can be assumed that RMIGs will gain control of (or at least strong influence over) a functioning country in the next half century. If the terrorists do gain control of a country with a fully functioning and stable government, the nature of the game changes drastically. When terrorists becomethe government, all terrorism is state-sponsored The nations wealth, scientists, laboratories and research facilities can be focused to develop weapons of mass destruction of all types for use in the global jihad. Even in the absence of WMD, by gaining the status and legitimacy of a national government, radical Islamists will present western and developed nations with a difficult problem. We have seen in Afghanistan and Pakistan the benefits that a sovereign safe-haven has provi Causes and Effects of Growing Terrorism Causes and Effects of Growing Terrorism Chapter 1 Introduction The Threat from Terrorism There are very few humans in the world today who have not had their lives altered or affected in some way through terrorist acts or the threat from terrorism. The highly publicized terrorist attacks in the United States, London, Madrid, and Mumbai were seen worldwide and have lead to sweeping changes in the security postures of many western and developed nations, as well as to a multi-nation war in Afghanistan. For those that have not felt the direct effects by losing someone close to them, there are many life altering after-shocks have had global reach and thus have effected nearly everyone. Every person who uses public transportation, rides in a plane/train, or crosses an international border will feel the effects of international terrorism through vastly increased security measures. Terrorism has changed foreign policy for many nations and has lead to wars.[1] In all, terrorism is rewriting the geopolitical map as we see it now and in the decades to come, will continue to change t he world as we know it. Radical Militant Islamic Groups There are many religions and political factions that have terrorist cells. In fact, in this day and age, one would be hard pressed to find a country or religion that does not have some form of fundamental or radicalized terrorist group in its midst. Groups espousing terror find roots in Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Buddhism and Hinduism.[2] This being said, in recent times, the most dangerous threat to western and developed nations comes from the Radical Militant Islamic Groups. These Islamic Militants have not only local and national reach, but can project their influence regionally and even globally (as seen with Al Qaeda and Hezbollah), and thus will be the focus of this dissertation. Shifting Sands: Since as far back as history dates, there has been war between peoples. Sometimes these peoples were evenly matched, and the battles pitted large armies against one another. Yet at other times, the odds were heavily in favor of one side, and the lesser of these groups had to resort to non-traditional warfare to inflict losses on their enemy. Sometimes these attacks were focused on the enemys military, and sometimes these attacks were focused on the citizenry of the enemy nation. The enemies could be nation vs nation or sometimes they were nation vs a non-state actor group. The pendulum has swung back and forth throughout history as to what is the root of terrorist groups. With the emergence of Al Qaeda we have seen that in the present day the non-state actor terrorist groups have taken center stage, though this may be about to change. Attempt to predict the future This paper engages the probability of predicting the future of global terrorism. This is achieved by analyzing the history of the origins and conceptual changes of terrorism over years past and current trends of terrorism as seen through the data available from the terrorism scholars of today. Though terrorism is not a completely Islamic phenomena, this paper will focus on terrorism from Radical Militant Islamic Groups, as this is the most predominant form of terrorism seen in the present day. It will attempt to lay out the evolution of terrorism to give some basis for a review of the current most important trends in terrorism. It will discuss the origins of ethno-nationalist (or state sponsored) terrorism and further discuss how this has morphed into the new transnational (or non-state actor) terrorism of today. Finally the paper will set the stage for the prediction of a future shift back to state sponsored terrorism and outline the reasons why this is going to occur. Chapter II Evolution of Terrorism – Historical Roots Mr. Speaker, I agree with those who say that the Global War  on Terrorism is actually a Global War of Ideas and that  terrorism is one of the tactics used in that War. Mac Thornberry (US Congressman) P re-Modern World: 1st Century BC to the 13th Century The history of [6] 1793: The Origins of Modern Terrorism In 1793, following the French revolution, Maximilien Robespierre instigated a reign of terror on those who opposed the French revolution.[7] This reign of terror is conventionally known as the birthplace of the word Terrorism.[9] Robespierres sentiment is the keystone in the beliefs of many modern terrorists, who consider violence the best and most efficient way to get to their desired outcome. As decades passed, the categorization of terrorism as a state action has blurred, as the idea of terrorism as an attack against an existing political order became more prominent. 1950s: The Rise of Non-State Terrorism Terrorism in the 1950s got its start from the guerilla warfare tactics popular with many insurgent groups of the time. This rise of guerrilla tactics by non-state actors in the last half of the twentieth century was due to several factors. These included the blossoming of ethnic nationalism (e.g. Irish, Basque, Zionist), anti-colonial sentiments in the vast British, French and Dutch empires, and new ideologies such as communism. In near recent times, terrorist groups with nationalist agendas have sprung up in every part of the world. For example, the Irish Republican Army grew from the desire of Irish Catholics to form an independent republic, and break their ties with Great Britain.[10] Similarly, the Kurds, a distinct ethnic and linguistic group in Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq, have sought national autonomy since the beginning of the 20th Century.[13] 1970s: The International Turn of Terrorism International terrorism came to the forefront as a prominent issue in the late 1960s, when hijacking of large airliners became a favored tactic. In 1968, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine became the first group to hijack an aircraft.[18] 1990s: 21 st Century: The Rise of Religious Terrorism Though an argument can be made that the rise of religiously motivated terrorism got its modern day start in Iran and Afghanistan to counter the political issues of the Shah and the Soviet Union, it came to the forefront with many highly visible violent acts committed during the 1990s. Groups that justify their violence on Islamic grounds Al Qaeda, Hamas, and Hezbollah come to mind first. But Christianity, Judaism, Hinduism and other religions have given rise to their own forms of militant extremism.[19] In recent years RMIGs have taken center stage for their astoundingly violent acts perpetrated against the citizenry of non-Muslim cultures. Chapter III Trends in Terrorism When you give religiously inspired zealots weapons of mass destruction and you promise them that if they kill innocent people they will go to heaven, imagine what the consequences are. Major Changes are Ahead There are major changes coming to terrorism in the years ahead. These changes can be seen from the trends of today, and will deeply change the threat to marked nations by terrorists and the terms on which we must fight the war against RMIGs. The top trends that will influence the changes in Terrorism Globally are summarized below. Fertility rates will lead Western Countries to come under Islamic rule In contrast to the developing world, many industrialized countries are currently, or will soon, see fertility rates below the replacement level and hence significant declines in populations, excluding the effects of immigration[22] Militant Islam continues to grow in both membership and power It has been clear for years that many Islamic nations face severe problems with religious extremists who are dedicated to advancing their political, social, and ideological views by any means necessary.[23] Nearly all of the Muslim lands are overcrowded and short of resources. Many are poor, save for the oil-rich states of the Middle East.[27] The Terrorist Ranks Are Growing The post 9/11 invasion of Afghanistan that lead to the unseating of the Taliban regime deprived Al Qaeda of a safe haven, striking a major blow against the global terrorist movement, yet by not following up effectively on that initial success, a great deal of benefit that could have been solidified was squandered. Additionally, with the invasion of Iraq, Al Qaeda and its sympathizers now have new grounds from which they can unite their members and, more importantly, recruit new ones.[32] At the heart of the Middle East fundamentalist movement are the wahabists of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has recently been forced to enact a program designed to keep Muslim men from going to Iraq to wage war against the coalition forces in a global jihad.[35] In this way, the foundation for terrorist cells are built which are independent of Al Qaeda but resolutely committed to the same objectives. Examples of this have been seen in the Madrid railway bombings which were carried out by Al Qaeda inspired Moroccan terrorist cell who were motivated by the Iraq invasion.[39] It is clear that RMIGs have significant sympathy among Europes Muslim population. The French riots of October and November 2005 affected at least twenty cities in that country, resulting in 2,888 arrests, leading to a further spill over of violence in Greece, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, and Switzerland.[40] It has been proven that Saudi Arabia continues to fund and maintain connections with a broad group of religious schools, stretching from Pakistan to New York, and from the Philippines to India.[44] Individuals from Europe and the Middle East are embracing the extremist teachings, traveling to Afghanistan, Kashmir and Iraq to fight, and returning to their own countries, with the rights of western citizens to carry the fight against the very nations they were born to. RMIGs Will Gain Access to Weapons of Mass Destruction It must be assumed that tomorrows terrorists will make every effort to ensure that they have more than unconventional amounts of conventional explosives with which to make their violent point.[46] Pakistan represents by far the greatest opportunity for would-be nuclear terrorists to become nuclear terrorists. If Muslim extremists cannot gain access to stolen weapons from the former Soviet Republics, Islamabad may be their provider. Thankfully, this seems not to be a guarantee that terrorists will use nuclear weapons against the potential western targets. RMIGs will most likely receive large, hard to conceal, low-yield devices that will be difficult to smuggle to their target. Though one can be certain that terrorist organizations will try anyway, other weapons of mass destruction (WMD) look to be a much more likely option. Clouds of toxic gas or incompletely weaponized bacteria could find their way into New York City, London or Paris. Even more likely is the chemical weapon threat. As the Japanese cult Aum Shinrikyo, demonstrated in a Tokyo subway in 1995, chemical weapons are available to essentially anyone who wants them badly enough to put in a modest effort to make or buy them.[47] The Home Grown threat from Muslim extremists is on the rise A 1994 terrorism study by the US Department of Defense predicted that by 2020 a majority of the worlds most important Muslim lands could be controlled by extremist religious governments.[52] Beyond that, for the first time, an Islamic country, Pakistan, has nuclear weapons. As previously mentioned, Islamic extremists view this technology as an Islamic bomb that could be used to promote their apocalyptic ideology, making nuclear terrorism a realistic threat. This threat will grow as Iraq, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, and other countries establish fundamentalist regimes that are willing to back the cause of jihad against the West. Saudi Arabia is well on the path to be taken over by a fundamentalist regime, and to attempt to postpone this, the Saud family will continue to provide more support to extremists and endeavor to direct the RMIGs attention to the West.[53] The overthrow of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the war in Iraq have strengthened the global jihadist movement, given them a training ground and built up the contacts for future terrorist acts. The gap between the Haves and the Have Nots will continue to increase The growing gap in wealth between the rich and poor countries looks as if it will further destabilize the world order, continuing to encourage prospective RMIGs in the less developed nations to foment violence against the rich in their own countries, or when available against western targets. This rising gap in wealth within many prosperous nations has the possibility to set off discontent among the less well-off, possibly helping to inspire random violence and acts of domestic terrorism in the West. The growing gap in wealth and income between the rich and the poor also may inspire conversion to Islam in the West, principally among the underprivileged. As seen in England and Australia, this can be a source of violent extremism among both immigrant and native populations.[54] Population growth is highest in those countries least able to support the growth The greatest fertility rates are found in those countries least able to support their existing populations: the largest population increases projected between 2000 and 2050 include the Palestinian Territory (217 percent), Niger (205 percent), Yemen (168 percent), Angola (162 percent), the Democratic Republic of Congo (161 percent), and Uganda (133 percent).[55] The Muslim world is reproducing at an extremely high rate, with fertility rates of 7.5 in Afghanistan, 6.0 in Yemen, and 4.9 in Iraq.[57] Even these estimates appear to be on the low side. According to CSIS, most official projections underestimate both the fertility rates and age of mortality, as well as making the assumption that life expectancy will grow more slowly in the future, which seems unlikely as world healthcare only continues to get better. Growing Western prosperity relative to other countries with rapidly growing populations and overburdened economies will continue to make the developed nations a target for terrorism. Shortages of food could help to motivate extremism unless the industrialized nations make a determined, visible effort to provide for the worlds poor. (Food production in the next 40 years will need to be significantly higher then ever before in the worlds history to keep the exploding world population from starvation).[58] Urbanization, will continue to increase rapidly According to the Population Reference Bureaus 2006 World Population Data Sheet, Forty-eight percent of the worlds population currently lives in cities. By 2030 that figure is expected to grow to 60 percent, as approximately 2.1 billion more people move to the worlds urban centers.[59] In industrialized nations, on average, more than three-fourths of the population lives in urban areas (urban areas are defined differently for each country).[62] Right now, there are billions of people who live in urban areas who lack adequate clean water, shelter, toilets and hygiene areas, and/or electricity.[63] The problems this raises with reference to crime, violence, and religious extremism is readily apparent. Concentrating the poor, oppressed and powerless in large cloistered urban centers produces conditions ideal for the spread of crime and the type of religious extremism that lends itself to violent ideologies. Chapter IV Old Terrorism Any government that supports, protects or harbours terrorists is complicit in the murder of the innocent and equally guilty of terrorist crimes. George W. Bush Old Terrorism – Ethno -nationalist or Ideological, and state sponsored What are the differences between the legitimate tactics used by authorities in the quelling or defence of terrorism, and terrorism itself? Nations at times will use violence to control or manipulate parts of their populace, or use intimidation to get what they desire.[67] A government that is an adversary of Country B may apply terror tactics in an effort to make up for real or perceived inadequacies in conventional warfare capabilities. Repression through terror of the indigenous population of their own country may occur to stop the dissent or violent uprising inside the country that Country B might exploit. Special Operations forces, paramilitary forces and state intelligence assets could conduct terrorist operations against Country B interests both inter-regionally and as far outside the countries borders as the abilities of their external security apparatus will allow to destabilize Country B and bring desired visibility to the sponsoring governments issues. Finally, attacks on Country B on their home soil may be conducted by RMIGs of the state or by other domestic proxies.[68] This is being seen today in Iraq with the Iranian involvement to destabilize Iraq and kill coalition servicemen, as well as Pakistans efforts to destabilize the Jammu and K ashmir region of India. Forms of State Terror Governmental or State terror State involvement in terror State sponsorship of terrorism Turning a blind eye to the harboring/funding of terror groups in their borders[69] Governmental or State terror Governmental or State terror is normally seen when a regime uses threats or outright terror to its own populace to exert power over or suppress them.[73] These weapons were not used against the majority Muslim population in the southern 2/3 of Iraq, where he accomplished his goals using conventional state terror methods. State involvement in terror State involvement in terror includes the activities where government personnel perform operations using terror tactics that are directed against other nations interests, individuals or private groups that have opposing or controversial opinions/actions viewed as counter to that of the state. In essence, it is governmentally authorized terrorism, though these sanctions hardly ever come to public light. Some past examples of this governmentally authorized terrorism are the assassination include the Soviet and Iranian assassination operations aimed at state dissidents who moved abroad for fear of their lives. Additionally, the targeting and destroying (through a covert bombing campaign carried out by Libyan and North Korean intelligence officers) of international airliners was another past example of this form of terrorism.[75] A further form of state involvement in terror is pro-state terror. This is a terror campaign carried out by small groups or individual people who have no authorized status in the system. These type of attacks generally are lacking in official support as well. Pro-state terror may have the end result of a desired outcome which the government wants. In these cases, with official use of violent crime tacitly supported by the authorities, even though the groups or individuals have gone outside the rule of punishment of the terrorists is rare. State sponsorship of terrorism State sponsorship of terrorism, also referred to as state supported terrorism, represents a situation when non-state terrorist organizations are trained, equipped and operationalized by an authorized national governmental agency. A very productive aspects of this support is the providing of safe havens for terrorists organizations.[78] Examples of state sponsorship of terrorism are the overt support by the government of Syria to Hamas as well as Lebanons overt support and backing of Hezbollah. Syrian funding and the providing of safe havens facilitate many training areas in the Beka Valley territory.[81] Chapter V New Terrorism Terrorism is carried out purposefully, in a cold-blooded, calculated fashion. The declared goals of the terrorist may change from place to place. He supposedly fig problems his only solution is the demolition of the whole structure of society. No partial solution, not even the total redressing of the grievance he complains of, will satisfy him until our social system is destroyed or delivered into his hands. BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, International Terrorism New Terrorism – Transnational or Global Jihadism The first efforts to describe a new form of terrorism began to occur in the 1990s, when scholars of terrorism attempted to make sense of a phenomenon they were seeing that did not fit into the previous model of terrorism in the 1970s and 1980s. Attacks such as that of the religious cult Aum Shinrikyo did not make sense without a reconsideration of the old model. In reality, the term new terrorism truly came into its own only after the September 11, 2001 attacks.[82] In a short comparative of the new and old terrorism, it has been stated that: * The new terrorism is justified on religious and apocalyptic grounds, while the old terrorism was rooted in political ideology.[83] * The new terrorism aims at destruction as an end in itself, while the old terrorism used violent destruction as a means to a political end;[84] * The new terrorism is organizationally distinct from the old terrorism. It is hierarchical (has many equally authoritative points of leadership) and horizontal, rather than hierarchical and vertical; it is decentralized rather than centralized;[85] * The new terrorism aims at as much destruction as possible, whether through devastating forms of weaponry or techniques such as suicide terrorism, whereas the old terrorism sought to create a dramatic spectacle with as little damage as possible;[86] More recently, those who write about new terrorism have focused on a perceived new threat of mass casualties caused by chemical, biological or other agents.[89] On the counter point, when one looks holistically and historically at Terrorism, there seems to be no old or new terrorism, just a Darwinistic evolution of violence for political purposes. Even Martha Crenshaw, the noted terrorism expert who is a staunch advocate against the use of the term New Terrorism states the following in comparing and contrasting the goals, methods, and organization of New and Old Terrorism: Goals The new terrorism model assumes uniformly that religion, primarily of those groups with millennial and apocalyptic ideologies, is the main precipitating factor. The new terrorists are said to have ambiguous goals on the systemic level and to value destruction for its own sake (i.e., the means are the ends). By contrast, the old terrorism is seen as comprehensible, limited, more specific, and often tied to territory – thus making the grievance more susceptible to negotiation. How well does the new terrorism model fit the historical record? Crenshaw observes that the religion behind various groups (e.g., Aum Shinrikyo versus Al Qaeda) differs, as do their goals (i.e., local or global). She also notes that some of the old terrorist groups (e.g., the 19th century anarchists and the Red Army Faction) had broad, transnational goals.[90] Means According to the new terrorism model, groups seek to kill as many people as possible and are particularly drawn to weapons of mass destruction, whereas the old terrorism approach assumed that the groups were limited in their means as well as goals. Crenshaw acknowledged that the new terrorism model best fits with respect to this criterion. [91] Organization and structure The new terrorists are decentralized and networked, are inspiration-driven, and often include amateurs. By contrast, the old terrorists are centralized, top-down, professional organizations that are often state sponsored. The new terrorism distinction only partly meets this criterion as many of the old terrorist groups, such as the Red Army faction, were not so monolithic. The bottom line seems to lend itself to seeing terrorism as not new in kind, but in degree and structure.[92] The new terror groups of today (Al Qaeda being the most well known) center mainly around religion as a core for recruitment and promulgation of ideology. Islam is the religion of choice and has found a massive following in Middle Eastern Arab Muslims, especially the Wahabists of Saudi Arabia, but the splinter groups, or those groups loosely associated, have worldwide reach.[93] These organizations differ significantly from more traditional terrorist organizations of past decades. The groups of today do not depend on the sponsorship of a political state, and, unlike the PLO or the IRA, they are not defined by a particular conflict. Instead, these groups operate analogous to the businesses McDonalds or Starbucks. Al Qaeda is the franchise owner, providing financial and logistical support, as well as name recognition, to local, regional and transnational terrorist groups operating in such diverse places as the Philippines, Algeria, Eritrea, Afghanistan, Chechnya, Tajikistan, Somalia, Ye men, and Kashmir. Local groups may carry out acts in the name of al-Qaeda in order to bolster their own reputation—even if they are not receiving support from the organization. This is possible because the ideology that al Qaeda has developed and promulgated focuses their concepts to stress a few main tenants to ensure the survival and spread of the movement. Ensuring the perpetuity of the fight.[94] Obeying the individual obligation to fight Islams enemies regardless of the apparent outcome of battle[95] Institutionalizing a culture of martyrdom[96] Pinpointing Islams enemies through the refining process of jihad, and thus maintaining its identity[97] Establishing pride, brotherhood, and unity in the face of threats to the ummah[98] Creating a parity of suffering with Islams enemies—especially the Jews and Crusaders[99] Victory is seen in the maladies afflicting Gods enemies, especially economic recession and natural disasters[100] Observing miracles and dreams in jihad, which foretell of divine guidance and ultimate victory for the mujahedeen[101] As long as groups follow these main tenants, and focus their violence against the common enemy, then they are supporting the common cause. Due to this, Scott Atran argues that it is not religion, but group dynamics based off of social needs that fuels the Global Jihadist movement but small-group dynamics involving friends and family that form the diaspora cell of brotherhood and camaraderie on which the rising tide of martyrdom actions is based.[102] As mentioned by Crenshaw above, one of the main improvements of New terrorism is that of decentralized execution of actions that may or may not have been planned by some higher authority. As stated in the United States Air Force Defense Doctrine publication 1, Decentralized execution is, the delegation of execution authority to responsible and capable lower-level commanders to achieve effective span of control and to foster disciplined initiative, situational responsiveness, and tactical flexibility.[103] Chapter VI New Old Terrorism In todays wars, there are no morals. We believe the worst thieves in the world today and the worst terrorists are the Americans. We do not have to differentiate between military or civilian. As far as we are concerned, they are all targets. Osama Bin Laden Time magazine profile (16 September 2001) The Pendulum Swings Back For better or worse (and this author believes it is worsemuch worse) the pendulum is swinging back in the direction of state sponsored terrorism. For nations like Pakistan and Iran, the pendulum never moved, as these countries have been manning, training, equipping, and operationalizing terrorist groups for decades.[108] Iran has consistently been described by the United States as the worlds foremost state sponsor of terrorism. It actively supports terrorist groups, most prominently the Lebanese group Hezbollah.[115]. Iran and Hezbollah Hezbollah, a radical Shiite militia based in Lebanon, is a direct product of funding and training by Irans IRGC (QF). It was formally established in 1982 following the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, aimed at uprooting the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization) bases there.[119] RMIG takeover of Islamic Nations For other nations that have not been wholly engaged in state sponsored terrorism, there are growing dangers as well. There are two types of new and developing state sponsored terrorism which may very soon roll a number of these nations into the terrorist state fold. The first one, unfortunately, we are all familiar with, as the most accurate example being the Al Qaeda infiltration of Afghanistan. After the Soviet Union finally withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989 the communist Afghani government hung on for three more years, and then was finally overrun by RMIGs.[121] These services and practical, day-to-day contributions to the lives of ordinary citizens will provide a legitimacy and underpinning for future political activities by terrorist organizations. This RMIG sponsored ground root social support, combined with the reality that in almost every country in the Muslim world, western focused terrorism already has the sympathy of a majority of the population and the strong allegiance o f many, will in the near future give rise to terrorist based governments in many middle-eastern countries. The second development in state sponsored terrorism is focused at the western nations, with Europe directly in the crosshairs and North America soon to follow. The most dangerous and most likely future development in the spread of terrorism is that caused by population growth and immigration of Muslims into western lands. The bottom line is that there is a near irreversible trend in the expansion of Islam into Europe and Canada.[125] In essence, Europe in the next 50 years will be of a very different demographic makeup as it is now. Of all population growth in the EU in the last 20 years, 90% has been from immigrants, much of which were Islamic.[126] In France, though the statistics vary, the Islamic fertility rate is considered much higher than the 1.8 of native Frenchmen, as Islamic immigrants make up only 7.5% of the population yet account for 20% of the fertility rate.[128] It is not just France. As of 2001, the Muslim population in Great Britain rose from 82,000 in 1991 to 1,600,000 (Estimated at 2,500,000 today).[131] Compared to the decline in population of a majority of the industrialized nations, The United States (thanks to Latino immigration) will maintain the current fertility rate of 2.11 children per couple, thus providing the body pool to maintain strength in the global economy, as the European Union falls to third place behind the United States and China.[132] Whether it be by overthrow in an unstable middle-eastern country, or out-breeding the populations of western nations, it can be assumed that RMIGs will gain control of (or at least strong influence over) a functioning country in the next half century. If the terrorists do gain control of a country with a fully functioning and stable government, the nature of the game changes drastically. When terrorists becomethe government, all terrorism is state-sponsored The nations wealth, scientists, laboratories and research facilities can be focused to develop weapons of mass destruction of all types for use in the global jihad. Even in the absence of WMD, by gaining the status and legitimacy of a national government, radical Islamists will present western and developed nations with a difficult problem. We have seen in Afghanistan and Pakistan the benefits that a sovereign safe-haven has provi

Letter Correspondance Between Denver From Beloved And Tayo From Ceremo :: essays research papers

Letters   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  I have decided to write letters of correspondence between Tayo and Denver. These letters will entail the relationships they have with their family lives and other aspects of the characters. There is of course the problem of timelines and that these two characters are apart in their setting about a hundred or so years. Not to mention that Tayo is half white and half American Indian and Denver is an African American whose mother was a slave. Letter #1 Dear Denver,   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  You don’t know who I am, but I got your address from a friend of mine. He tells me that you have a difficult relationship with your parents as well. I have never met my father and my mother died when I was very young. I know this is a very hard topic to talk about, but as I hear, you have a very difficult family life as well. You don’t have to write me back, but I think that people like you and I should stick together and maybe help one another out.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  I have been through a lot lately, and I don’t really know where to go. I am an American Indian and I have been seeking the help of wise men for a very long time trying to find a cure. You see, after my adopted brother died, I have been very sick. I don’t know if you are also facing the same bodily ailments, but I truly hope you are coping better with your situation.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Tell me about your family life. Do you have a father? What exactly is bothering you so much that you told my friend about it? What are their backgrounds and what do you have a problem with? Do you also have medicine men in your village that cure people with herbs when they get sick? I have been on this one herb for a while now, but I still keep throwing up when I remember my brother dieing. I lay in bed most of the time, and when I feel well enough to stand, I can only walk around the house. I feel as thought my adopted mother hates me because I am half white and my grandmother is the only one who really makes me feel halfway decent when I want to kill myself. Do you have any siblings that make you feel better when you’re down or anyone who you can talk to about your problems?

Erwin Rommel :: essays research papers

Erwin Rommel Jr. was born on November 15, 1891 in a small WÃ ¼rtemburg town of Heidenheim. His father Erwin Johannes Eugen Rommel was a local schoolmaster and former artillery officer. His mother Helena von Luz was the daughter of the local Regierungs-Prasident. Rommel was one of five children, though his brother Manfred had died at an early age. As a child, he was reasonable and very gifted academically and athletically. He was educated at TÃ ¼bingen, a military school in Stuttgart. Rommel planned to apply to the Zeppelin works at Friederichshafen; his father did not approve, and advised him to enter the army. In July 1910, Rommel became a cadet in the 124th WÃ ¼rtemburg Infantry Regiment in the 26th Infantry Division of the German Imperial Infantry. He served as a cadet until March 1911, then began attending the prestigious military academy Konigliche Kriegsschule in Danzig. His eight-month course ended in November 1911, in which time he rose to Lieutenant: Corporal in October and Sergeant at the end of the year. While at the academy he met his future wife Lucie Mollin whom he wrote to everyday during both World Wars, and married in 1916. In January 1912 Rommel rejoined the 124th WÃ ¼rtemburg Infantry. In summer 1914, he served as artillery attachment in drilling practices near Ulm. On July 28, 1914 Franz Ferdinand, the Archduke of Austria, was assassinated. The assassination was a major cause of World War I, Rommel’s first true combat tests. Rommel’s first battle was at Longwy after twenty-four hours of marching and riding. He believed that the only successful way to deploy his troops was to be at the front of them. On August 22, 1914, Rommel spotted a group of fifteen to twenty French soldiers. Rommel and his three-man reconnaissance team opened fire in the town of Bleid. Shortly after, eight hundred yards northeast of Bleid at freshly dug trenches, he charged the French with parts of his regiment. Then assisted by two other men Rommel drove off a whole French column, after all the action Rommel passed out from lack of sleep. The battle of Longwy caused a loss of 15% of Rommel’s men and 25% of his officers. Medical doctors informed Rommel after the battle, that he was suffering from food poisoning, but Rommel would not leave the field.

Learning to be a Citizen of Cyberspace :: Technology Education Papers

Learning to be a Citizen of Cyberspace Most researchers agree that the growth of a knowledge-based society will bring about fundamental changes in the production, distribution and exchange of information and that most every social and cultural institution will be changed in some way, but none more than education (Negroponte, 1995; Oppenheimer, 1997; Stevenson, 1997; Upitis, 1997). This is because, more than any other social institution, education is fundamentally about knowledge, information, and communication. Although it certainly makes use of material tools and sometimes results in the production of material goods, these are ancillary to the fundamental process of education: people use knowledge to create more knowledgable people. It is therefore not surprising to find considerable support for transforming education so that it is as fully independent as possible from geographic location and physical space. If education does not require a specific spatial location or a building then it can be delivered from anywhere to anywhere. This will, some argue, transform the fundamental infrastructure of education at every level, starting particularly at the post-secondary level, and will fundamentally erode local community, or even national control over education. The development of on-line courses, libraries and other information resources, and the marketing of distant or on-line education by businesses and schools eager to profit from opportunities to expand their horizons, are the beginning of what some see as a revolution in learning. (Veccia, 1998; Wilson, 1997) In addition to overcoming geographical constraints on the delivery of education, new technologies promise to expand the basic nature of education. In quantitative terms, computer communication is opening up vast new sources of information and learning by enabling on-line access that frees schools from complete dependence on paper delivery. Associated with this is the ability to link written with audio and visual material that can enrich the full range of the learner’s senses. The technology also creates a qualitative expansion in the means of education by taking a process rooted in the one-way delivery of knowledge and making it more participatory and reciprocal. Education moves from an emphasis on transmitting information to the active creation of knowledge. Moreover, according to this view, computer communication takes a system of learning based in narrow linear, narrative forms, and opens it up to a wide range of non-linear, exploratory processes that allow the learner to m ake full use of his or her own multiple cognitive maps. As a result students mutually constitute their learning environments, all of which grow in the learning process.

An argument in favor of abortion supporting a womans right to freedom Essay

Is there ever a case, when one person’s religious preference should be allowed to encroach on another person’s right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness? Today many American’s justify their intrusion by siting Articles and Amendments to the Constitution of the United States.   In particular, they speak of the freedom of speech, religion, the right to bear arms, etc.   It seems as though the freedoms are only valuable when everyone shares the same beliefs, morals, and values.   But are these freedoms also guaranteed for those whose values may not be the same as the majority?   As American’s is it not possible to differ and hold different beliefs in pursuit of liberty?   What makes one person’s beliefs more valuable under the constitution than another person? A lot of people do not support abortion because they believe it is killing baby. When most abortions occur, which in the first trimester â€Å"†¦a cluster of cells or a less than half ounce fetus is not anywhere close to a definition of an actual baby.† (4) Scientists use the term fetus and not a baby because a baby â€Å"†¦could be born and survive outside the mother’s womb†¦Ã¢â‚¬ (4) and a fetus could not. A fetus is nowhere near ready to live outside the mother’s womb and â€Å" There is no real functioning brain, therefore no real humanity.† (4) So in reality abortions do not terminate babies, they terminate a fetus that could not survive outside the mother’s womb. Another reason people are not for abortion is that of religious beliefs. Some believe that terminating any form of life in the mother’s womb is wrong no matter the reason and â€Å"Those religiously opposed to abortion in the first two trimesters are free not to have them.†(9) Just because abortion is legal does not mean people are going to be forced to go out and participate in them. Abortion being legal does not impose on anyone’s rights or make anyone do anything they do not want to do. Therefore, if abortion goes against someone’s religious beliefs they are free not to go and get one. People who do not want abortion legalized talk about how it goes against their religion but what about the religion of the woman partaking in the abortion? Not everyone has the same beliefs or sees things the same as others. By trying to make abortion illegal it infringes on citizens rights. If â€Å"†¦my brothers and sisters in the United Church of Christ, who do not see the bible they way you see it, are free to make their own choices†¦ isn’t that freedom of religion too?† (9) People cannot talk about how abortion imposes on the pro-choices religion without talking about the religious freedom of the woman undergoing the procedure. If a woman’s beliefs tell her to do what is best for her The last topic is how making abortion illegal will take away a woman’s right by forcing her to stay pregnant. There are various reasons why a woman chooses to have an abortion. Whether it is because the woman is not ready for kids emotionally or financially, the baby was produced by rape or incest, or she simply just may not want kids and etc.   For people who are pro-choice â€Å"†¦ If your side ever wins, then my daughter and her daughter will be forced to stay pregnant, when their life circumstances†¦ would be much better served if they could safely terminate the fetus†¦Ã¢â‚¬ (7) So for people out there who are wanting abortion to illegal, in a sense, they want a woman to be forced to be pregnant even if that is not what is best for the woman. If abortion stays legal â€Å" we haven’t forced your daughter or her daughter after her, to do anything against their will.† (7) By keeping abortion legal no one’s rights will be infringed on a nd no one is forced to do anything they do not want to do. The same cannot be said if abortion was made illegal. In conclusion, abortions do not terminate babies it terminates fetuses. If abortion goes against someone’s religious beliefs they are free not to have them but do not forget about the religious freedom of the woman undergoing the abortion. People who do not support abortion will never be forced to do something against their will whether its legal or illegal but making abortion illegal will force a woman to stay pregnant against their will. These were just a few reasons why I think abortion should stay legal.   

Disorder Analysis

â€Å"Me Myself and Irene† is a movie about a Rhode Island State Police trooper named Charlie Baileygates who has a mental disorder. The disorder that can be evidently seen in the movie almost creates the whole essence of the story. Charley Baileygates' (Jim Carrey) is found to have a Dissociative Identity Disorder or more commonly known as multiple personality. In the movie, Jim Carrey's character changes from Charley to Hank, who is the other personality, that somehow is the complete opposite of Charlie.During the course of the movie, this Dissociative Identity Disorder of Charley terrorizes his condition and his interaction with other people, especially with Irene (Renà © Zellweger). As the movie assessed Charlie's condition, it showed that this disorder was caused by the anger that has been kept inside for years due to other people who took advantage of him. Raising three African-American kids that are sons of his wife and a black dwarf limo driver, who eventually stole h is bride, Charlie accepted it but has kept this unconscious anger deep inside him.This eventually led to Hank, who is the other personality inside his brain. Hank is the rude, violent and cocky persona that is completely the opposite of Charlie.DISSOCIATIVE IDENTITY DISORDERAs defined by the American Psychiatric Association's Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM), â€Å"Dissociative Identity Disorder is a psychiatric diagnosis that describes a condition in which a single person displays multiple distinct identities or personalities, each with its own pattern of perceiving and interacting with the environment.†(American Psychiatric Association, 2000).The requirements of the diagnosis suggests at least two personalities consequently gaining control with regards to a person's demeanor and actions. With regards to its possible causes, epidemiology, appearance across cultures, and existence, this disorder is controversial. Interaction of several factors are c auses that lead to Dissociative Identity Disorder. Possible symptoms that suggests a demonstration of Dissociative Identity Disorder ranges with wide variations during the course of time.Symptoms that can be included are distortion or loss of subjective time, depersonalization, depression, amnesia, headaches and other body pains. People with this condition may even suffer auditory hallucinations with regards to the two personalities' discussions and might even result to misdiagnoses that may falsely conclude a psychotic issue. People with DID often display an array of indications that can match those of other mental health disorders and many physical disorders as well. Chronic and potentially disabling or fatal, patients with Dissociative Identity Disorder are prone to harming themselves.There are various treatment methods to cure this disorder such as Psychotherapy, medications and behavioral treatments. A psychiatrist or psychologist may use specially designed interviews such as t he SCID-D and personality assessment methods to evaluate an individual with Dissociative Identity Disorder. Integrating the personalities into a single personality is the main goal of treatments. Drug therapy can alleviate some particular symptoms but does not heal the disorder itself. Psychotherapy on the other hand is emotionally painful and difficult.In general , two or more psychotherapy meetings a week for at least 3 to 6 years are essential. Helpful also may be Hypnosis.CONCLUSIONAs seen in the movie, this condition is not actually a psychotic disorder. But despite this, there is danger among people with this condition, as seen in Charlie and Frank's battles, if not properly treated. Integrating the personalities might be hard, but keeping them in tune and coexisting might help. Psychotherapy is the best option for treatment of DID.